In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. The "who will control the House of Representatives" market will pay out $100 for a $350 bet. Its a busy time for collecting polls. House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Beyond this general tendency, however, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, Not Woke Yet? Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. Our House Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Congressional race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. All 435 districts were up for election. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. Clickme! Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. Forty-nine representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House seats (not including those who left office early): General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Apply today! Ballotpedia defines wave elections as the 20 percent of elections where the president's party lost the most seats during the last 100 years (50 election cycles). The 2022 House of Representatives election will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation's capital, the District of Columbia) will be up for grabs. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. See the rest of our predictions. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. 26th February 2023. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. View live updates on electoral votes by state for presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on ABC News. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. A GOP sweep of those Toss Up races would represent a gain of 30 seats, and its not unusual for one party to win the lions share of competitive contests. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r